“We’re a bit blind now.” That’s how Florida State University hurricane researcher Allison Wing summed up the abrupt loss of critical satellite data for hurricane forecasting. It’s a bold statement, but as the 2025 hurricane season ramps up, it’s becoming alarmingly accurate. The abrupt withdrawal of essential Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) data, along with sweeping budget and staffing reductions within NOAA and the National Weather Service, is rocking weather and emergency management communities.
For meteorologists, emergency planners, and anyone who lives in hurricane zones, these changes aren’t just administrative they’re intimate. With experts predicting that forecast accuracy will be pushed “decades” back, let’s take a closer look at exactly how these reductions are altering the game, and what that does to public safety and preparedness.
1. The End of Microwave Satellite Data: A Forecasting Game-Changer
The DMSP satellites’ Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) has been the gold standard for looking inside hurricanes for many years. Microwave data is the only method of viewing the inner structure of a storm and looking through clouds, particularly at night or over the ocean. As James Franklin, former head of the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Specialist Unit, explained in his interview with Scientific American, “It’s the only way really to see through clouds and get a sense of the organizational structure of the core of a developing cyclone.” It was losing this information that will make forecasters so much more difficult to detect rapid intensification or small changes in a storm’s center critical details that can be the difference between an ordinary warning and a lifesaving alert.
2. Forecast Accuracy Suffers a Serious Blow
NOAA representatives have attempted to assure the public that other satellites and instruments will make up for it. Experts disagree, however. SSMIS provided virtually half of all microwave data that U.S. forecasters have at their disposal, ABC News reports. Michael Lowry, a former FEMA and National Hurricane Center meteorologist, was blunt: “The permanent loss of data from these satellites is senseless, reckless and jeopardizes the lives of tens of millions of Americans who live in hurricane alley.” The stakes? Missing out on rapid intensification episodes or getting a storm’s center off by up to 60 miles enough to change the impact zone of a big hurricane.
3. Nighttime and Distant Storms: The New Blind Spots
Old-fashioned visible and infrared satellites can record only surface-level information and they don’t work after dark. Microwave data has been a salvation for monitoring storms in the middle of the night or far out at sea, where storm-hunting airplanes can’t fly. As University of Arizona atmospheric scientist Kim Wood explained, “Microwaves are helpful for tracking hurricanes because the waves are long enough they penetrate through the tops of clouds.” Without it, forecasters face a “sunrise surprise” waking up to discover a storm much more powerful than predicted by models.
4. Staffing Shortages: The Forecasting Backbone Is Fraying
It’s not just data that’s vanishing. Dozens of NOAA and National Weather Service employees have been fired or retired early as part of the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) effort. NWS offices in Florida are short 20% to 40% of staff, with some local offices unable to remain open 24/7. John Morales, a longtime NBC6 meteorologist, cautioned on television, “I am here to tell you that I am not sure I can do that this year, because of cuts, the gutting, the sledgehammer attack on science in general.” The consequence? Fewer specialists to analyze data, alert the public, and work with emergency managers during high-stress situations.
5. Weather Balloon Launches Cut, Models Downgraded
Weather balloons, or radiosondes, provide vital atmospheric data that feeds directly into forecast models. Staffing shortages have forced NOAA to suspend or reduce launches at multiple sites, cutting off a key source of real-time information. Michael Morgan, former NOAA assistant secretary, warned, We’re going to lose data because of this staffing. And that loss of information then feeds through to less accurate predictions, greater uncertainties in the prediction. When the models are not so accurate, all downstream forecast hurricane paths to rain forecasts are less dependable.
6. Emergency Response and Evacuation Decisions Compromised
For emergency planners, accurate forecasts are the key to planning evacuations. Rapid intensification storms, already difficult to forecast, are even more difficult to identify without complete satellite and balloon data. According to Yale Climate Connections, evacuating too late or not at all can be fatal. And with FEMA itself struggling with budget and staffing issues, local authorities might find themselves denied the federal assistance they’ve taken for granted for decades.
7. Risk Research and Long-Term Forecasting
The DMSP satellites were not limited to hurricanes. They furnished information on Arctic sea ice, fires, and sun activity essential for climate research and long-term trend analysis. As oceanographer Carlos Moffat at the University of Delaware regretted, “This new announcement about the sea ice data really amounts to blinding ourselves and preventing us from observing these critical systems.” The loss of the datasets will be gaps that would take years to recover, hindering scientific advancement and public knowledge.
8. The Domino Effect: More Response, Less Prevention
With worse-than-expected forecasts, emergency responders can expect to encounter more surprises and have less time to prepare. As James Franklin told WUSF, “It’s the forecasts that are going to be degraded starting this year, and that means that the people who have to respond may have to do more response rather than less, because we’re dealing with poorer forecasts.” In other words, less prevention means more scrambling after the fact a dangerous tradeoff during an era of stronger, faster-changing storms.
9. Calls for Reversal and Transparency Grow Louder
Meteorologists, researchers, and emergency managers join hands in calling for the government to change its stance and give clear reasons for making these cuts. The abruptness of the DMSP data termination with little more than days’ warning left many of the National Hurricane Center employees in disarray. As a NOAA scientist explained to The Guardian, “You can’t expect us to make accurate forecasts and warnings when you take the useful tools away.”. It truly is an embarrassment for the government to take a path with fewer data and just hope everything will be fine.
The 2025 hurricane season is on pace to be a real test of mettle not only for coastal communities, but for the whole weather and emergency management system. As the experts keep ringing the alarm, here’s one thing certain: slashing critical data and expertise isn’t a matter of technicality it’s an issue of public safety. The hope now is that making things open, advocating, and reaffirming an emphasis on science will be enough to redirect the discussion back towards saving lives and property in the event of increasingly powerful storms.
