It’s the sort of prediction that leads you to double-check your emergency supplies. Fall 2025 promises to be anything but a gradual descent into sweater season. Rather, many parts of the U.S. will experience summer’s hold on tight, wildfire haze waft over states, and flood threats linger due to a season of historic heat and storms that remains in recent memory. Experts indicate that having a sense of what is coming, and how to prepare, is the key.
1. A Warm Start to Fall
Climate Prediction Center forecasters are predicting above-normal temperatures in nearly the entire nation through October. AccuWeather is forecasting that warm, humid air will persist over the eastern United States, postponing cool autumn air. “The warmest conditions, relative to the historical average, will be concentrated over regions from California to Texas and north to Oregon and Idaho,” meteorologists said. That would mean the East can expect summer-type weather well into October, and the Southeast and Southwest might remain warmer than normal into late fall.
2. Wildfire Season Isn’t Over
The West will experience a heightened wildfire threat during the first half of autumn, particularly in California, the Rockies, and the Northwest. Meteorologist Brian Lada cautions that wind events may ignite extensive fires in southern and central California as early as September, and lightning from storms that are moisture-starved may ignite blazes northward. The Carolinas, Northeast, and Great Lakes may experience fire threats if droughts continue. As of August 7, the U.S. had already recorded over 42,000 wildfires the most by this date in at least a decade, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.
3. Smoke on the Wind
Smoke from both U.S. and Canadian fires is expected to continue affecting air quality in the Midwest and Northeast into mid-fall. “Millions of individuals from Minneapolis to Chicago will most certainly experience additional rounds of wildfire smoke and a hazy sky,” noted AccuWeather’s Paul Pastelok. The Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre is detailing over 500 uncontrolled fires in Canada with smoke blowing south. On worse-than-usual days, AQI levels in metropolises such as Detroit have competed with the globe’s worst, and specialists such as UCLA pulmonologist May-Lin Wilgus emphasize that inhaling wildfire smoke “is comparable to smoking a quarter to half a pack per day.”
4. Health Effects and Protection from Smoke
Wildfire smoke has hazardous PM2.5 particles that can penetrate deep into the lungs and even into the bloodstream. These toxins can provoke asthma, exacerbate heart disease, and elevate the threat of long-term afflictions such as dementia. UC Davis wildfire smoke specialist Lisa Miller refers to it as “a toxic soup” when man-made materials combust. To minimize exposure, reducing it as much as possible is advised by specialists, including staying inside with windows closed, air purifiers, and N95 masks outside. “The dose makes the poison,” says Miller any measure to restrict exposure is significant.
5. Flood Risks Remain High
Summer 2025 brought a 70% increase in flash flood reports compared to the 10-year average, with more than 4,800 incidents by mid-July. From Texas to North Carolina, deadly floods have struck, fueled by tropical storms and stalled weather systems. This fall, moisture-laden systems from the tropics and slow-moving fronts could trigger more flooding in the Appalachians, Ohio Valley, and central Gulf Coast. Burn scars from previous wildfires, such as those in Ruidoso, New Mexico, can turn even moderate rain hazardous, causing water to rush downhill.
6. The Role of the Bermuda High
A more intense-than-normal Bermuda High an ongoing high-pressure belt off Bermuda has been one of the leading causes of this year’s record rainfall. It brings moisture into the U.S. and can situate storm systems, elevating the chance of heavy rain. With an active storm track from Canada, it has broadened the footprint of severe weather from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.
7. Climate Patterns Fueling Change
Long-term patterns indicate that wildfire seasons begin earlier and extend longer, particularly in California’s northern mountains, where snowpack melts earlier in warmer years. NASA data indicates extreme wildfire activity has increased by more than two times globally, with Western U.S. forests among the regions hardest affected. Increased nighttime temperatures, reduced summer moisture, and decades of fuel accumulation from fire suppression are all making fire behavior more extreme.
8. Being Prepared
Experts emphasize preparedness. For heat, drink water, avoid strenuous outdoor activity, and check in on vulnerable neighbors. For wildfire smoke, watch AQI daily, keep indoor air filtered, and keep masks in supply. For floods, be aware of your local flood zones, enroll in alerts, and do not drive through water. AccuWeather’s Jon Porter cautions, “Flash flooding can occur with little notice, and in areas that are not accustomed to experiencing it.”
The coming months can bring foggy skies, heat waves in late summer, and surprise storms but with caution and readiness, communities can ride out the season’s risks more safely.
