“The sea will be very angry.” That National Weather Service warning out of Mt. Holly, New Jersey, captures the mood up and down the Atlantic coast as Hurricane Erin glides by closest. It is not a storm that must make landfall to do damage it’s already redesigning the week for towns from Florida to Newfoundland.
Following nine days of muscle-building over the Atlantic, Erin today is a huge Category 2 system with 100-mph winds and a wind field so broad it’s generating dangerous waves up to 1,000 miles from its center. From mandatory evacuations on North Carolina’s Outer Banks to beach closures in New Jersey and New York, the storm’s effect is as much water as wind.
This is what’s happening now and what’s in the queue down the areas along Erin’s route, and the ripple effects that can spread as far as Ireland.
1. Outer Banks Fighting Life-Threatening Ocean Conditions
Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, is preparing for what the National Weather Service has described as “extremely life-threatening” conditions. 15- to 25-foot waves, storm surge to 4 feet, and wind gusts of 40–60 mph are forecast through Thursday. Parts of Highway 12, the sole road connection to Hatteras and Ocracoke islands, are already experiencing overwash, and Dare County officials have indicated the roads may be closed for days.
Locals have been piling sand 10 feet deep in Nags Head to fight the surge, but erosion is inevitable. Dare County Emergency Management Director Drew Pearson advised that folks get out, stating, “I know a lot of individuals who reside on Hatteras Island believe that they can weather the storm, but Erin’s different.” Double red flags are up at beaches, indicating that the water is closed to the public.
2. Virginia and Maryland Prepare for Widespread Coastal Flooding
High tides along the Virginia Beach to Ocean City, Maryland, coast on Wednesday evening, Thursday morning, and Thursday evening will cause moderate to severe flooding. The 10- to 14-foot waves will pound the coast, and on the Chesapeake Bay and tidally affected Potomac River, water will rise up to 3 feet.
The Wakefield, Va., office of the National Weather Service issued advisories of “hazardous shore break” that may result in neck and back injuries. Several roads will be shut down, and beachfront homes and businesses in low-lying coastal areas along the beach may be overrun.
3. Delaware and New Jersey Close Beaches to Swimmers
Seabright, New Jersey, to Bethany Beach, Delaware, is threatened with 1 to 2 feet of coastal flooding and battering surf. Some communities, like Wildwood and Rehoboth Beach, already have closed their beaches to swimmers. Officials are stressing that the danger is not waves rip currents that can sweep even good swimmers out a significant way offshore.
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy also called for people to stay out of the ocean altogether this week, expecting “meaningful flooding on the back end” of the storm.
4. New York and New England to Feel Peak Wave Energy Late Week
Cape Cod to Staten Island have been placed under high surf advisories. Waves as high as 16 feet are predicted along the Long Island south shore by Friday, with coastal flooding and dune erosion predicted locally. Nantucket, which already has experienced rough surf, will experience even more dangerous surf as Erin’s peak occurs.
The combination of big waves and rip currents will render it unsafe to surf and swim deep into the weekend.
5. Bermuda and Atlantic Canada within Erin’s Extended Reach
Bermuda will be crossed by Erin’s outer rain bands Thursday night into Friday, with 10-20 foot waves and rogue waves of up to 30 feet expected. Tropical-storm-force rain squalls and heavy rain squalls can also be expected.
Further north, Newfoundland and southern Nova Scotia will experience rough seas on Friday and Saturday. While Erin itself will remain well south of these areas, mariners and coastal residents are also expected to experience dangerous marine conditions.
6. Western Europe May Experience Erin’s Remnants
The jet stream will transport Erin’s corpse to Western Europe shortly after the following week. At that time, the storm will have completed extratropical transition and lost its tropical center, but may still possess vigorous gusts and large waves particularly to Ireland.
Historical records indicate that approximately 10% of Atlantic tropical storms have hit Europe in the last four decades, and while uncommon, they have been intensely destructive as a consequence of unpreparedness.
7. More Tropical Disturbances on the Horizon
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two other systems in the east Atlantic. One of the tropical waves has a 60% chance of development and can bring showers to the Windward and Leeward Islands later this week before it turns northward. Another disturbance, with a 30% chance of development, can make it to the Caribbean Sea by the weekend.
As September is generally regarded as the “supercharged” month for hurricanes, meteorologists warn that multiple systems could be concurrent, increasing the danger of coastal blows.
The enormity of Hurricane Erin requires that its effects extend far outside its center, to as far as the Carolinas to Canada and in due time, the Atlantic. The storm might, in the end, blow by on time, but the hazards it leaves in its wake, from rip currents to erosion, will remain. For beach residents, the message is simple: tune in to local news, listen to the ocean, and remain alert as this record-breaking hurricane season continues to roll.
