“It was a year in which the Atlantic seemed to hold its breath and then exhale with historical force.” Indeed, the 2025 hurricane season came to an end without making landfall in the U.S. for the first time in over a decade, and this despite having three major, or cat-5 storms. For weather enthusiasts, shorelines, and those in the business of preparedness for emergencies, “It has been a season that has emphasized both the unpredictability of nature as well as the rapidly accelerating pace of scientific innovation in forecasting.”
1. A Season of Contrasts
The Atlantic hurricane season produced 13 named storms, five of which were hurricanes, and four majors. These numbers aren’t far from the averages. But there was something odd about the reported frequency, which had troughs going on for dramatically long periods of time followed by furious spikes. The busy season, around September 10, was remarkably slow, but this season also produced no fewer than three category 5 hurricanes: Erin, Humberto, and Melissa. Only 2005 had more, with a total of four. What was strange, though, was that this season produced four out of five of its hurricanes that were of category 4 and/or 5 intensity, a first.
2. No U.S. Hurricane Landfalls
It is the first time since the year 2015 when the mainland US was free from the hurricane landfalls. This was because of the steering current as well as other reasons like the trough of low pressure, which kept the hurricanes at a distance from the mainland US. At the same time, its influence was seen as Tropical Storm Chantal caused floods-related death in the states of Carolina due to the collapse of houses on the beaches as a result of the approach of the Hurricanes on the coast of Carolina.
3. The Powerhouses – Erin, Humberto, and Melissa
Hurricane Erin had recorded one of the fastest intensification periods ever experienced, accelerating its speed from 75 mph to 160 mph in only 24 hours and accompanied by a pressure decrease of 83 millibars. The second recorded category 5 hurricane occurred in Humberto, but Melissa was the odd one out. During its landfall in Jamaica on October 28th of this year, it tied perhaps the record for the strongest landfall of an Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, boasting a speed of 185 mph and a pressure of 892 mb, equalling that of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. The first ever recorded gust of 252 mph occurred in Melissa, measured by a dropsonde on a research plane and verified by National Center for Atmospheric Research. World Bank damage on Jamaica was reported to have been 8.8 billion USD, or 41% of Jamaica’s potential GDP.
4. Ocean Heat and Climate Signals
More than 80% of the Atlantic Ocean had elevated ocean heat content, the third-highest on record, going back to 1958. Nearly 40% of the region had the highest 10% of its record-breaking warmth. Its huge ocean heat content made it possible for a storm like Melissa to regain its force even after passing over the Bahamas, as it did. Climate Central Rapid Attribution study showed an increase in the rate of the attainable peak wind speed by 10 mph.
5. The Entry of AI into the Forecasting Arena
“In the 2025 season, there was the very first real-world implementation of artificial intelligence in the prediction of hurricane storms,” according to a news release by SAGE News. The Google DeepMind AI was used by the National Hurricane Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration due to its accuracy in predicting cases of rapid hurricane intensification, which has always been difficult to achieve. The Google Melissa AI identified “high threat levels of danger for Category 5 status during the storming” and was combined with models “based upon physics.” This event was “absolutely crucial in predicting danger,” according to Matt Lanza of The Eyewall Blog.
6. Next Generation Observation Campaigns
The NOAA Hurricane Field Program accomplished 52 research missions, releasing over 1,100 drop sondes and conducting 155 Tail Doppler Radar wind analyses. The unmanned platforms played a leading role in the mission: a C-Star surface drone was the first one to make measurements within the eye wall of the category 5 hurricane (Humberto), and miniature unmanned aircraft finished record-breaking missions in the hurricane environment. The gliders produced nearly 6,000 temperature and salinity profiles, including measurements in the hurricane Erin, where the cooling effect of the waters influenced the forecast.
7. The Hybrid Modeling Revolution
In addition to using the DeepMind model, NOAA additional utilized an ensemble of global models using AI power that is referred to as the Hybrid Global Ensemble Forecast System. This performed better than both of their capabilities when combined together, leading to a faster completion of the forecast models of tropical cyclones and also an improvement of predictions of the next seven days from going worse. Through this experimental Hurricane Analysis Forecast System referred to as HAFS, one of the models referred to as HAFS-B was exceptional for their accurate forecast of the intense growth of Hurricane Melissa.
8. Lessons for Preparedness
Although the U.S. was spared the landfalling hurricanes, the levels seen this season reminded one that it is imperative to be prepared. On an average, three named storms, among which is a hurricane, strike the U.S. per annum. Records show that years in which the U.S. is spared the threat of hurricane strikes are few and that this occurs only once in nineteen years, and this has happened only six times since 1851. Evidently, the year 2025 reminded one that even distant hurricanes give life-threatening conditions in the ocean levels, in addition to the financial burden seen in the Caribbean and the island nations.
Indeed, the hurricane season in 2025 is definitely one that will be etched as contradictory in terms of calm and destruction, as well as technological development that gave forecasters an extra mile towards achieving their aim of being life-saving alerts. “For those who call places threatened by hurricanes home, it is clear that it is a year to be grateful for the pause that precedes the storm.”
