A quiet beach day can mask an ominous reality: storms literally hundreds of miles away from your position continue to shape the waves at your feet. This week, forecasters and people in coastal communities have been paying close attention to not one but two powerful systems: Tropical Storm Jerry in the Atlantic and Hurricane Priscilla churning in the Pacific. Impacts could range well over their immediate paths of destruction.
1. Formation and Forecast of Tropical Storm Jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry, the Atlantic hurricane season’s 10th named storm, formed quickly in the central Atlantic on Oct. 7. About 1,315 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, Jerry is packing maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, with higher gusts possible. Forecasters expect “steady strengthening,” with Jerry likely to reach hurricane status within the next day or two. On its current track, Jerry could be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday into Friday. While some forecast models suggest a turn northward into the open Atlantic, uncertainty remains, and even a distant track could still send dangerous swells toward the U.S. coast.
2. Hurricane Priscilla’s Strength and Path
In the Pacific: Hurricane Priscilla, moving parallel to the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur, is strengthening. As of Oct. 7, Priscilla was located about 230 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Sustained winds were near 100 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Priscilla is forecasted to reach or near major hurricane strength before weakening begins midweek. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches – with localized amounts up to 4 inches – are forecast for southern Baja California Sur. Tropical moisture might reach the southwestern United States later this week and bring heavy rain/flash flood risks.
3. The Hidden Hazard of Rip Currents
Even if Jerry or Priscilla stay offshore, they can still cause deadly rip currents on far-away shores. Such powerful channels of water flow from the nearshore waters out to the open ocean, often between breaking wave crests where the water surface seems rather calm. Rip currents can exceed 8 feet per second in speed, faster than an Olympic swimmer can swim, and are responsible for about 15% of the fatalities directly caused by tropical cyclones in the United States. The threat may linger long after a storm has passed, especially if underwater beach topography has been changed.
4. How Distant Storms Create Dangerous Surf
Hurricanes produce waves by transferring wind energy over long expanses of ocean. Larger, slower-moving storms create larger waves that can travel hundreds or even thousands of miles. When such waves reach shore, they interact with sandbars, reefs, or other coastal features, pushing water offshore and creating rip currents in the process. That is, clear skies at the beach can be deceiving and does not necessarily mean it is a good day to swim.
5. Hurricane Preparedness Guidelines by NOAA
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration encourages residents in hurricane-prone areas to take action early: Have an evacuation plan and know your routes. Stock an emergency supply kit with enough food, water, and other supplies for each person in your household to last through the storm and its aftermath.
Get an insurance check-up-standard policies don’t cover flooding, which requires separate coverage. Create a family communication plan having meeting places, including an out-of-town location. Reinforce your house by trimming trees, installing storm shutters, and sealing openings.
6. Managing Anxiety About the Weather
Storm season may trigger climate anxiety, including fear, uncertainty, and a feeling of helplessness. Limiting the amount of disturbing news of the storm season, maintaining self-care routine activities, and concentrating on that which one can control may be helpful. The emotional toll may be softened by building community relationships and talking candidly with friends or professionals. For children, unruffled explanations and reassurance from adults can reduce their storm-related fears.
7. Staying Safe at the Shore
Beachgoers should only swim near lifeguards and heed warning flags. If caught in a rip current, the latest advice from experts is to “flip, float, follow”-flip onto your back to conserve energy, float until you are out of the current, and then follow the current downstream until you can signal for help or swim out parallel to shore. Never swim alone, and don’t enter the ocean if you aren’t confident of your swimming ability.
8. Current Watches and Warnings
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of southern Baja California, where outer bands of Priscilla will reach the region soon. Moisture associated with Priscilla will bring rain to Southern California through early Thursday, with Flash Flood Watches over mountain and desert areas. On the East Coast, residents should keep an eye on Jerry’s forecast and be prepared for hazardous surf advisories, even if the storm stays well off-shore.
But with Jerry and Priscilla both active in both basins, vigilance among coastal residents and travelers is warranted. The reach of the ocean is much greater than the eye of any storm, and physical and mental preparation remains the strongest defense.
