Might a brewing storm in the Caribbean prove to be ‘one of the season’s most threatening hurricanes’ while avoiding the mainland U.S. entirely? Tropical Storm Melissa, brewing in the eastern Caribbean, is already being closely watched by meteorologists and residents in this region. Projections provided by the National Hurricane Center indicate that Tropical Storm Melissa poses no threat to either Florida or the mainland United States, but will create ‘severe effects’ in Haiti, The Dominican Republic, Cuba, and Jamaica.
1. Melissa’s Current Position and Development
As of Monday, October 20, the system was actually putting out a concentrated region of showers and thunderstorms, moving westward at a speed of 15 to 20 mph into the central Caribbean. Surface observations indicate that the circulation of this system has been improving, and the environment is forecast to become more conducive for its development soon. The system would be declared a tropical storm once it has wind speeds of at least 39 mph, marking the 13th named system of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which normally experiences a total of 14 entities annually.
2. Forecast Track and Threat Zones
COMPUTER MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT POSITIVES: some indicate Melissa will move westward of Central America, while others suggest a northeastward direction toward Hispaniola or Eastern Cuba. “The likely forecast is that the system will eventually be steered northeastward by a trough in the jet stream toward Haiti and the Dominican Republic or Eastern Cuba late in the week or into the weekend,” told hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. “It appears on some models that trends are suggesting there could be an impact in Haiti and the Dominican Republic as early as Thursday, and they should be preparing for a possible hurricane impact,” said associate scientist Andrew Hazelton.
3. Reasons the Mainland U.S. Is Not at Risk
It appears that the strong winds at higher levels from the subtropical jet stream prevent any possible storm system from making it close to the U.S. coast, as they act as a hurricaneseparator that breaks apart any storm system attempting to move close to the U.S. coast. This jet stream system has prevented major hurricanes from hitting the U.S. coast since the start of the 2025 hurricane season.
4. Understanding Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti models depict likely storm trajectories, although not all are created equal. The National Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five models that performed with the highest accuracy to make their official predictions. These models include the European model, GFS model, and a newly developed HAFS model that have exhibited up to 10% improvement over previous models for storm trajectory and intensity.
5. Historical Late-Season Caribbean hurricanes
Historically, October hurricanes in the region have had disastrous consequences. Hurricane Matthew claimed more than 700 lives in Haiti in 2016, as well as billions of dollars in damage. Hurricane Wilma rapidly intensified to record-breaking speed before hitting both Mexico and Florida in 2005. Hurricane Mitch in 1998 left catastrophic flood damage in Central America, where more than 11,000 lives were lost.
6. Preparing for Melissa’s Potential Impacts
The people living in Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Cuba need to be prepared for rain, flooding, strong gusts, and rough seas. According to the NOAA, one should start preparing a disaster supply kit, making a plan for evacuation, and purchasing insurance well in advance of a storm. Flood insurance, which carries a 30-day waiting period, is a must for residents living in flood-prone areas.
7. Climate and Ocean Conditions Fueling Melissa
Melissa is passing into some of the warmest waters recorded this late in the season in the Caribbean, with sea surface temperatures at least 0.5 degrees above average. According to the Climate Shift Index data provided by Climate Central, the odds of this level of warmth becoming so favorable to Harbor Seal populations, due to human-caused climate change, are now 500 to 800 times higher.
8. Role of Early Response Initiatives
In the Dominican Republic and Haiti, anticipatory action plans supported by World Food Programmes are also helping. Anticipatory action includes providing cash transfers prior to the arrival of the storm, text messages for early warnings, and pre-positioning of food. These actions have worked well during the Hurricane Fiona experience of 2022 and can be scaled up.
9. Remaining Calm and Informed
For people living in the Caribbean, it is imperative that they stay updated through authorized sources. Indeed, the NHC cone of uncertainty covers roughly two-thirds of the forecasted locations, and this implies that any expected affected area may be well beyond the forecasted location. Through reliable updates and tips on how to be prepared, people can be able to handle the expected effects of Melissa in an effective manner.
